“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” ~Sherlock Holmes.
Holmes clearly understood that having data to back up one’s conclusions is paramount and our exclusive quarterly OCTG inventory yard survey is further proof of this fact. This firsthand investigation and analysis is the only one of its kind in the world and serves as a bellwether of OCTG health throughout every segment of the US supply chain.
We presented the evidence leading to our determinations in the October OCTG Situation Report. The results of our 3Q24 yard survey confirmed our hunch that we’d be witnessing a turn for the better—insofar as inventory volumes are concerned.
Sherlock Holmes also knew data can be powerful, but not on its own. Only through pragmatic analysis can raw data be made into something practical. In other words, facts point to things which exist but don't necessarily explain how or why they got that way. Our main goal at The OCTG Situation Report has always been looking beyond the obvious so our subscribers can make sense of the stats and put them to work for their operations. And here again, we sort through the usual suspects and a few red herrings to piece together the supply/demand puzzle in our October Report.
This month we also looked at historical OCTG inventory levels and consider their impact on pricing. Considering various trade actions and overseas disruptions, current and potential, along with a multitude of clues that make up this market (peppered throughout our October market intelligence), we were able to deduce apparent consumption and quarterly months of supply for the remaining months of 2024.
The verdict: for every upside going into 2025, there appears to be a potential downside that could thwart an otherwise exuberant conclusion. It doesn’t take a sleuth to know that the operative word for any market recovery will always be demand—and that sustained demand is the best case scenario. “Elementary” we suspect most would declare, but all roads lead to this assessment. Case closed...until next quarter.
NOTE: Our monthly blog posts offer a slice of the content we publish in The OCTG Situation Report® every month. To subscribe and/or request a complimentary copy of our Report for review please visit: https://www.octgsituationreport.com/subscribe.
Photo Courtesy Texas Steel Conversion
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